Real Madrid vs Atletico derby: predicted tactics & XIs – which team is stronger post-Ronaldo?

Spain’s capital city is getting ready for the derby as Real Madrid and Atlético prepare to do battle.

The sides enter the match in second and third place in La Liga and this could be a huge leap forward for either side. A win for Atleti would see them leapfrog Los Blancos into second place, but a win for Madrid could even send them top of the table if earlier results go their way.

This will also be the first derby without Cristiano Ronaldo, the Portuguese phenom scored a massive 22 goals across his 31 games against Atleti in his time for Real Madrid. Without him, Los Blancos are struggling to find a consistent way to play and just got absolutely destroyed by Sevilla, so what can they do to win this game? And how can Atleti set themselves out to carry their momentum forward to get a huge victory for themselves?

Real Madrid

The first thing that needs to be pointed out is that Marcelo and Isco are doubts for this game. That needs to be stated up-front because it is makes a massive difference to the way Madrid play. Marcelo is often Madrid’s driving playmaker from the back and all up the left-flank, whilst Isco’s sorcery gives Los Blancos new levels of invention.

The second point is that Madrid are coming off a humiliating 3-0 defeat to Sevilla. Now, Madrid can lose away to Sevilla, in fact they’ve done so six of the last seven times they’ve visited the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuan in La Liga. But the matches are close. They’re shootouts.

This was a thrashing and, frankly, Madrid were lucky to only lose by 3. Sevilla had countless chances to extend the score in the second half which they should have taken. Had this been 5-0 or 6-0, Los Blancos couldn’t have complained.

The major issue was that Madrid just could not live with the Sevilla counter-attack. It tore through them like a hot knife through butter. This is because so many Madrid players are weak in defensive transitions; namely Marcelo, Toni Kroos and even Casemiro (sort of, he makes excellent recovery tackles but he doesn’t mark space very well at all). Luka Modric’s magnificence usually covers for a lot of this, but The Best men’s player is not at full-speed yet after a gruelling summer with Croatia.

So what can Madrid do? Well obviously they have to dominate the ball, that’s how Lopetegui’s side plays. But doing so in a stretched out system when you don’t have the absurd goal power of Cristiano Ronaldo to rely on is tricky. So Madrid should instead return to the 4-3-1-2 that brought them so much success under Zinedine Zidane.

Nacho will fill in for Marcelo at left-back but play the role differently, rarely advancing beyond half-way to help protect against defensive transitions. This will give Dani Carvajal license to fly forward and provide all the side’s width on the right hand side of the pitch.

In the middle of the park, Toni Kroos (by far the weakest defender) is moved forward into a no. 10 role and Dani Ceballos comes in to help Madrid take control of the midfield. With four bodies in there, and given the defensive strength Ceballos often displays, Madrid will be able to dominate possession of the ball and offer penetration with forward runners whilst remaining defensively solid. Kroos will be liberated to play his passes and take potshots, two things he excels at.

In attack Benzema leads the line but Gareth Bale’s role would be interesting. With Nacho staying back, Bale would be responsible for providing most of the side’s width. The Welshman excels at peeling left and he possesses a phenomenal cross on him, and has the raw pace to absolutely torment Juanfran (by far Atleti’s weakest defender).

This system allows Real Madrid to cover defensive transitions whilst also putting so many of their best players in good positions to score. Without Cristiano the whole team has to step up and start scoring more, and this system will create those chances. Imagine Carvajal crossing to the aerially awesome Bale at the back-post, for example. Or Bale having the cutback options of Benzema at the near-post, Ceballos raiding into the box and Kroos just outside it?

Moreover, if Atleti’s defence is proving too difficult to break down, bringing Marco Asensio off the bench to play a forward role (or have him play left-wing and give Bale the forward role) gives Madrid a higher gear to go into.

Atlético Madrid

By contrast, the task for Atleti is so much simpler. After a rough start of just one win in four, they have found their groove and taken three games on the bounce. They are looking like a side in good rhythm and they have an added bonus in that Cristiano Ronaldo, one of their greatest tormentors, is not going to be playing.

In the last six Madrid derbies in La Liga, Atleti have seen Los Blancos put six goals past them. But of those six, four were scored by Cristiano. Pepe had one in 2016/17, so you’ll have to go back three years to find the last time someone playing for Madrid on Saturday actually scored a goal against Atleti in La Liga (Karim Benzema on 4th October 2015).

So right off the bat, Atleti are winning. They just need to line-up in their usual 4-4-1-1 with the back five picking itself. Jan Oblak, Diego Godín, José Giménez and Filipe Luis are certainties. Juanfran is likely to take up the final spot as Santiago Arias is still settling in, but it’s a well-established defensive unit.

In midfield, Koke and Saúl are obviously going to be present. Koke is the workhorse “wide midfielder” and Saúl the do-everything box-to-box magician. Next to him will be new boy Rodri, a tall Busquets-esque midfielder. And midfielders that can pass from the base of midfield have always given Madrid trouble because of their lack of a co-ordinated high-press. Look for Rodri to be influential.

On the right, another new signing in Thomas Lemar. The Frenchman will have the most freedom of the midfielders to get forward and attack. And don’t be surprised if he drifts left to whip in some dangerous crosses as much as he comes infield to try and score.

In attack it’s obviously Diego Costa and Antoine Griezmann. The majestic combination are one of football’s great strike partnerships, with the elegant Griezmann floating as the no. 10, as adept at creating chances as he is at scoring them. And then Diego Costa leading the line; the brutish striker massacred Madrid in the recent UEFA Super Cup, and whilst there has always been a clear difference in performance between when the Madrid Derby is played as a European tie vs. when it’s a domestic one, that feels instructive.

Prediction

Los Blancos have the history and the heritage, but barring a 0-3 win from the start of 2017, a win built on Cristiano Ronaldo’s hat-trick, Real Madrid haven’t beaten Atleti in La Liga since April 2013. They’re in poor form right now and unless Lopetegui switches back to a 4-3-1-2 it’s very hard to see how Madrid contain the Atleti counter.

It’s unlikely there are a lot of goals in the game, there rarely are in La Liga, but Atleti are in superb form and Madrid are bouncing back after a hard loss. The subsequent run of games will provide Madrid with a gentle lead-in to El Clásico in a month, but it’s highly likely that they’re going to have to “take the L” here.

Predicted Score: Real Madrid 0-2 Atlético Madrid

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